Global tensions in and around Iran are already having an impact on fertilizer prices and availability as farmers prepare for spring planting. Faith Parum, an economist for the American Farm Bureau Federation, said the Middle East plays a major role in the worldwide supplies of fertilizer.

"Countries exposed to disruptions around the Persian Gulf account for about 49 percent of global urea exports and roughly 30 percent of global ammonia exports. And so, as those shipments move out of that area, they're obviously at risk," Parum said. "About 20 percent of the world's global petroleum comes through the Strait of Hormuz, which is right in the area."

As the shipping risks and shipment insurance costs rise, there is an important step that could alleviate at least some of supply tightening.

A very important step would be to keep these shipping lines open and make sure there’s safe passage for fertilizer ships," Parum said. "There have been promises of safe passages for crude oil and oil ships, but we need to also make sure that fertilizer is getting out of this region."

Parum said fertilizer is truly a global marketplace, so U.S. farmers will continue to see impacts of events domestically and abroad.

"These markets will remain sensitive to these events. We can all remember in 2022, when Russia and Ukraine started their conflict, how fertilizer prices spiked upwards and have taken a long time to return back to normal. And so, we could see similar issues here," Parum said. "And so even though we produce some of that fertilizer domestically, we still are in a global marketplace, and so, we'll continue to see volatility throughout the season."

Learn more at fb.org.