Farmers are feeling the squeeze again as trade tensions ramp up, and the latest round of tariffs under the Trump administration isn’t making things any easier. Posts on X and industry chatter suggest that folks in agriculture are gearing up for a bumpy ride.

Retaliatory tariffs from major trading partners like China, Mexico, and Canada are throwing a wrench into the movement of U.S. crops—especially corn and soybeans. Experts estimate that unsold 2024 harvests could end up costing grain traders anywhere from $372 million to $930 million a year, thanks to unpredictable shipping expenses. If this all sounds familiar, it’s because it is—during the 2018-2019 U.S.-China trade war, U.S. agricultural exports to China plummeted by 30%, and farm bankruptcies in the Midwest spiked 43%.

American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) economist Betty Resnick sums it up plainly: tariffs hit farmers from both sides. "Farmers not only end up paying more for inputs, they also often take the brunt of retaliatory tariffs," she explained in a March 18 Market Report. "With over 20% of U.S. agricultural goods exported, retaliatory tariffs can pose a major threat to farmers’ ability to turn a profit. The most recent round of U.S.-imposed tariffs and subsequent retaliation are no different. The three top countries targeted for tariffs to date—Mexico, Canada, and China—are also our top three markets for agricultural exports, at $30.3 billion, $28.3 billion, and $24.7 billion, respectively, in 2024."

Meanwhile, an AFBF Market Intel Report highlights just how much of our agricultural exports rely on ocean shipping—nearly 60% of total export value and 65% by volume. To add to the uncertainty, the administration’s new proposal to impose fees on ocean carriers with ties to China could shake things up even more.


Rising Grocery Bills?

Farmers aren’t the only ones watching the tariff situation closely—consumers are, too. Grocery prices could take a hit, as higher tariffs make imported fertilizers, seeds, and other essentials more expensive or even harder to find. History tells us this isn’t just speculation—between 2018 and 2020, retaliatory tariffs slashed U.S. agricultural exports by $27 billion, with soybeans taking the hardest blow. The National Bureau of Economic Research estimated that the 2018 trade war alone cost U.S. consumers about $1.4 billion a month in higher prices.

One bright spot? Egg prices have been on the decline—at least for now. Wholesale prices have been falling throughout March and into April, following a peak earlier in the year caused by bird flu. Reports show that the average wholesale price for a dozen large white eggs dropped from over $8 in February to about $4.15 by mid-March, according to USDA data. A pause in major bird flu outbreaks has helped egg supplies rebound.

Retail egg prices, which tend to lag behind wholesale trends, have also started to come down. The national average for a dozen Grade A large eggs hit a high of $5.90 in February but was dipping below $5 by mid-March. Still, prices remain far above historical lows—like $2.04 in August 2023. While this is some relief after months of skyrocketing prices, experts warn that another bird flu outbreak or a surge in seasonal demand (hello, Easter) could send prices back up. AFBF also points out that eggs are an inelastic good—meaning that no matter the price, people keep buying about the same amount because, let’s face it, eggs are essential. Whether for breakfast or baking, they don’t have great substitutes, and they remain one of the most affordable protein sources out there.


The Bigger Trade Picture

Globally, China’s push to become more self-reliant—along with new tariffs on U.S. chicken, corn, and wheat—could shake up trade flows. But that’s little comfort to American farmers who are already staring at a record agricultural trade deficit. According to AFBF economists, these shifts only add more pressure to an already stressed market.

The mood around tariffs? Tense. Farmers and consumers alike are wary of markets tightening and prices climbing. Even before tariffs entered the mix, factors like climate challenges, California’s strict food regulations driving up costs nationwide, and bird flu were already nudging food inflation higher. Tariffs could pile on even more pressure.

That said, nothing is set in stone. The full impact will depend on how long these trade disputes drag on and whether the government steps in with support measures. One thing’s for sure—if these trends continue, 2025 is shaping up to be a rough ride for both agriculture and food prices.

This article has been modified from a previously published one by the Arizona Farm Bureau.